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- The MUST HAVE List of Features for B2B M-Commerce
- Is M-Commerce Just an Extension of E-Commerce?
- 4 Paths to Focus on in M-Commerce
- Will M-Commerce Revolutionize Our Lives?
- Direct Sales and M-Commerce–A Perfect Mix
- Personal Predictions for M-Commerce
- Will M-Commerce Affect Traditional Retail?
This is a list of my personal predictions for mobile commerce based solely on my research on the Internet, consumer experience, and my gut feeling.
- In 10 years, mobile will overcome PC advertising.
- Android will be the most important platform.
- Payments using mobile will be common in the US.
- Mobile will be the new playground for hackers.
- Smartphones will cost less than US$60.
- Tablets will not take off.
In 10 years, mobile will overcome PC advertising. Different from traditional Internet, the type of advertising that will grow in the mobile space will be more customizable. Most revenue in the mobile space will come from sponsorships, merchandising (especially in games), customized coupons, and “geo” promotions. Sponsored links today are the most important revenue generated on the Internet and will still be strong in mobile, but their importance will become gradually smaller. I predict that in 10 years mobile will overcome PC (Internet) advertising.
Android will be the most important platform. Most people in the market today use the iPhone as the trend when speaking of mobile commerce. I am predicting that Android will be the most important platform in the near future (within less than 3 years). The reasons for that are: more freedom of creation for developers, strong partnership with several carriers and several mobile manufactures (which leads to more model options), different pricing for different devices that can be tailored to every type of consumer.
Payments using mobile will be common in the US. After traveling to Japan and seeing their developments in m-payments, I cannot see any plausible reason for using the mobile device as a payment device to not take off and become intensly popular. I understand that people say that there are some technical issues and then some other economic ones (such as who will pay for the infrastructure costs). However, if large companies don’t have a plan to work in this segment, I have already heard about several start ups that are trying to enter this business now. I predict that in 5 years m-payment will be considered a common practice in the US followed by Europe in 10 years.
Mobile will be the new playground for hackers. With the increase in usage of smart phones, I predict (but I hope that it doesn’t happen) that a strong virus or Trojan will affect the mobile universe in the next 3 years. This outbreak will instill fear in consumers, but will not decrease usage.
Smartphones will cost less than US$60. Prices will decrease. Smartphones will not cost more than U$60 in the US in the next 5 years, increasing the market penetration for the majority of the population. I predict 70% market penetration for what we consider smartphones today in 6 years.
Tablets will not take off. New gadgets like the iPad or the Kindle will not become part of our lives as many people imagine today. Most likely mobile devices will include small projectors that will fulfill the need for a bigger screen. In fact, I predict that the iPad will not be in the media anymore than 3 years.
Now, I want to know your opinion. What do you think about these predictions?